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<div style="display: none; max-height: 0px; overflow: hidden;">Surf AI solves crypto's education challenge as mainstream AI models, including GPT-5, Grok 4, and Claude Opus, achieve under 70% accuracy </div>
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<h1><strong>TLDR Crypto <span id="date">2025-12-12</span></strong></h1>
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<h1><strong>Markets & Business</strong></h1>
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<strong>Fed ‘Hawkish Cut' Decrease Chances of BTC Santa Rally (3 minute read)</strong>
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The Fed cut rates by 25 bps as expected, but paired it with cautious guidance as only one more cut is penciled in for 2026. The committee had its most dissents since 2018 (9-3 votes). Markets largely ignored the rate cut, with BTC dropping back to ~$90k and ETH below $3.2k as traders read the decision as a classic “hawkish cut” rather than the start of a dovish pivot. At the same time, the Fed will buy $40B in T-bills over the next month to keep reserves ample, adding a quiet liquidity tailwind even as Powell stresses data-dependence. Spot BTC ETFs continue to see healthy inflows (BlackRock added ~$193M on Tuesday), but retail selling and macro uncertainty are keeping price action range-bound instead of delivering the hoped-for Santa rally.
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<a href="https://tracking.tldrnewsletter.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fwww.coindesk.com%2Fpolicy%2F2025%2F12%2F10%2Fu-s-senate-s-crypto-market-structure-bill-gets-messy-as-calendar-weighs-down%3Futm_source=tldrcrypto/1/0100019b12ba0807-4aef3296-9ffb-4ac0-8a16-2f1e624c1b79-000000/gqozBA9MaGtg7-AgxU5AG-gGzIhA1bR9W8CNflEGXU4=435">
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<strong>US Senate's Crypto Market Structure Bill Gets Messy (6 minute read)</strong>
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Senate Democrats delivered a counteroffer on crypto market structure legislation outlining unresolved demands on financial stability protections, ethics rules preventing elected officials from profiting off crypto projects targeting Trump family ventures, and stablecoin yield limits reflecting deposit flight fears from community banks. The White House blocked ethics provisions and Democratic commissioner nominees, according to Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, as divisions persist over long-term CFTC/SEC oversight splits and secondary-market protections, with Democrats rejecting markup calls despite GOP assurances that the bill is nearly ready. The Senate has days left in its 2025 calendar ending next week before slipping into midterm election pressures and January 30's expiring Continuing Resolution, risking another government shutdown, while progressive groups and Senator Elizabeth Warren criticize the effort as threatening financial stability despite being sidelined by Democrats negotiating directly with Republicans.
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<h1><strong>Innovation & Launches</strong></h1>
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<strong>Surf: Making Investing as Easy as Asking (6 minute read)</strong>
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Surf AI solves crypto's education challenge as mainstream AI models, including GPT-5, Grok 4, and Claude Opus, achieve under 70% accuracy on specific crypto data queries versus Surf's multi-agent reasoning system combining social sentiment, technical analysis, and onchain tracking. The chatbot interface delivers verified research reports addressing crypto's fragmented workflow, requiring manual API writing and Dune queries, with transparent reasoning reducing hallucination risk in a high-stakes environment where single ticker mistakes could cost millions. Founded by serial entrepreneurs from BitTorrent, Instagram, and Google who previously built and sold DLive and Cyber, Surf attracted 80,000 registered users spanning institutional investors validating theses to grassroots communities understanding token markets.
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<strong>OP Succinct Lite is activated on Celo mainnet (4 minute read)</strong>
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Celo activated its Jello Hardfork on mainnet, becoming the first chain to implement OP Succinct Lite in production and launch a fully auditable DA bridge for EigenDA, which introduces ZK-powered non-interactive fault proofs for efficient dispute resolution. The upgrade includes a six-member challenger set, including five independent ecosystem participants monitoring sequencer behavior and enforcing security guarantees as Celo moves toward L2 Beat's Stage 2 decentralization criteria. The backward-compatible activation required no action from full nodes or developers while deploying a new Rust-based Celo-Kona EVM client constructed using Succinct's SP1 framework. The foundation enables Celo's Layer 2 roadmap to target greater throughput, improved Ethereum interoperability, and enhanced finality guarantees for its mobile-friendly, low-fee payment network.
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<h1><strong>Guides & Tutorials</strong></h1>
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<strong>The Internet's Blueprint for Ethereum (30 minute read)</strong>
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You can't value Ethereum like a company or a normal L1. Instead, you have to treat it like the internet's base protocols (TCP/IP, DNS). It is a public good, so its main value comes from enabling everyone else. Ethereum should be valued based on captured value, Ethereum-dependent economic flow, and trust surplus. Captured value is the current market cap of ETH + L2s + DeFi blue chips, which is ~$0.6-0.9T today. Ethereum-dependent economic flows are like digital GDP, which is the annual value of activity that actually relies on Ethereum (e.g., stablecoins, tokenized assets, DeFi, NFTs, etc. which is capitalized at ~$0.3-3T. Trust surplus is the invisible value from lower fraud, counterparty risk, and rent extraction. It is estimated to be around $0.15-0.6T.
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<strong>I do not regret spending 8 years of my life in crypto (12 minute read)</strong>
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Nic Carter responds to Ken Chang's "I wasted 8 years in crypto" post by acknowledging that crypto largely became a casino rather than the promised financial revolution, but argues pragmatic optimism remains justified as speculation is an inevitable externality of building permissionless infrastructure. Chang's disillusionment mirrors Mike Hearn's 2016 Bitcoin exit over centralization concerns, both stemming from tension between idealistic expectations and reality, though crypto's five teloi – sound money, smart contracts, digital property, capital market efficiency, and global financial access – are advancing more slowly and less dramatically than hoped. Real progress exists in Bitcoin, stablecoins, DEXes, and prediction markets, with increasing evidence of being on the right track, requiring acceptance that hyperbitcoinization won't happen, most value may accrue to corporations or consumer surplus, and the normalization of gambling among youth is a depressing but unavoidable cost of permissionless capital markets.
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<div style="text-align: center;"><strong><h1>Miscellaneous</h1></strong></div>
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<strong>Ethereum's Irreplicable Moat & WWIII-Resistant Settlement (3 minute read)</strong>
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Crypto natives are undervaluing how uniquely hard it would be to recreate Ethereum's politically neutral, globally shared settlement layer. The historical window that allowed Bitcoin and Ethereum to bootstrap legitimacy with open, general-purpose launches is closed, so new L1s are competing under very different, more financialized conditions. Meanwhile, institutional behavior is quietly confirming the thesis that when banks, fintechs, and tokenization projects pick a base chain, they increasingly default to Ethereum for its reliability, neutrality, and minimized counterparty risk. As more assets, rollups, and devs pile onto the EVM and rollup stack, its network effects compound, and with Fusaka as well as sharper EF execution, Ethereum's moat is widening rather than eroding.
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<strong>MegaETH Liquidity Mining & Likely TGE Timing (3 minute read)</strong>
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Aave's governance proposal to deploy on MegaETH reveals new details about the chain's incentive design. Aave Labs is slated to receive 30M MegaETH “points” for liquidity mining, with accrual and redemption happening on MegaETH's own site at the end of each ~2-month “season,” and eligibility restricted to KYC-verified users. If mainnet and Season 1 incentives start around January 2026, that schedule implies a plausible MEGA token TGE window around March or April 2026, when Season 1 points can first be redeemed.
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<strong>Ethereum client politics: Ethrex vs. Reth (2 minute read)</strong>
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Ethereum should be cautious about adopting Reth, a full node client funded and controlled by a single venture-backed entity (Paradigm) that's also investing in competing infra.
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<strong>Pendle's Stablecoin Powerhouse (2 minute read)</strong>
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Pendle's stablecoin markets are now dominated by Ethena's USDe, which accounts for ~50% of yield-bearing stablecoin TVL on the platform.
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<strong>Phantom's CASH Supply Tops $100M (4 minute read)</strong>
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Phantom's CASH stablecoin surpassed $100 million in supply two months after its September 30 launch.
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<strong>SpaceX moves another $95 million of its Bitcoin stash (5 minute read)</strong>
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SpaceX moved 1,021 BTC worth $94.5 million to two unlabeled addresses on Wednesday via Coinbase Prime, marking the ninth transfer this year totaling 8,910 BTC ($924 million).
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