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<div style="display: none; max-height: 0px; overflow: hidden;">Over 9,000 BTC flowed into exchanges on November 21. 45% came from large 100+ BTC deposits, pushing the average deposit size to 1.23 BTC </div>
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<h1><strong>TLDR Crypto <span id="date">2025-11-27</span></strong></h1>
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<strong>Big BTC Holders Are Selling Into the Dip (3 minute read)</strong>
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Over 9,000 BTC flowed into exchanges on November 21. 45% came from large 100+ BTC deposits, pushing the average deposit size to 1.23 BTC, the highest in a year. Big holders appear to be reducing exposure and adding sell pressure. ETH and altcoins are also seeing elevated exchange deposits. Spot data shows sellers have dominated since early October, with only the last couple of days looking more balanced between buyers and sellers.
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<strong>World Liberty-Linked DAT ALT5 Sigma Is Imploding (3 minute read)</strong>
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ALT5 Sigma, a Nasdaq-listed firm that pivoted into a “digital asset treasury” to accumulate World Liberty Financial (WLFI) tokens, has seen its stock crash ~80% since August and is now experiencing internal issues. The company warned staff it expects litigation and possible regulatory probes, suspended its CEO, and was found guilty of money laundering in Rwanda. Shareholders say they feel “betrayed” as the broader DAT boom starts to look like an off-ramp for big token holders.
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<h1><strong>Innovation & Launches</strong></h1>
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<strong>SuperVaults v2: Powering the Neobank (7 minute read)</strong>
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Superform will launch SuperVaults v2 on December 3 with SuperWBTC, SuperWETH, and SuperUSDC on Ethereum, introducing validator-secured ERC-7540 vaults with double-Merkle hook allowlisting, 7-day timelocks, and validator-signed price-per-share backed by economic slashing to replace centralized "vaults" operating offchain without verifiability. The infrastructure splits roles across Managers under timelock who can only execute pre-approved hooks, Validators attesting PPS with bonded accountability, and Guardians with veto and pause authority, while the SuperBundler enables single-signature cross-chain deposits across 8+ networks. The flagship strategies combine variable-rate lending on Morpho, Euler, and Aave with fixed-rate Pendle Principal Token exposure dynamically allocated based on redemption activity and term-market dislocations.
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<strong>What Is ETH Actually Worth? (1 minute read)</strong>
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ethval is a public dashboard that tries to estimate ETH's intrinsic value instead of just looking at price. It combines 8 different valuation models to give a more fundamentals-driven view of Ethereum.
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<strong>Narrative > Revenue (11 minute read)</strong>
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Despite profitable companies like Pumpfun reaching $100 million revenue in six months and Hyperliquid generating $875 million with 11 employees, revenue shows weak correlation with token prices. Hyperliquid's $3 million daily buybacks correlate 0.7 with HYPE price, but PUMP's $460 million projected annual buybacks correlate only 0.38 with price at a 3.7x revenue multiple, while Uniswap's fees show -0.14 correlation with UNI despite the fee switch proposal spiking price 43% to $10 before settling at a 35x revenue multiple. The revenue meta disconnect mirrors traditional markets where TSLA trades at 260x P/E and PLTR at 350x P/E as the average S&P 500 P/E ratio doubled from 13 in 2011 to 30 today, with revenue mattering less in bubbles and more in bear markets as 2025 marks crypto's first year with multiple projects delivering hundreds of millions to token holders.
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<strong>Crypto Is Priced for Network Effects It Doesn't Have (13 minute read)</strong>
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Crypto is valued at $2,500-$23,000 per user versus Meta's $400-$500 per user, despite lacking comparable retention, monetization, or network effects, with most crypto "network effects" being negative congestion effects where more users increase fees and slow transactions. L1s capture 90% of total market cap but only 12% of fees, down from 60%, while DeFi generates 73% of fees but represents under 10% of valuation, contradicting the fat protocol thesis as value migrates to app and user aggregation layers. Metcalfe's Law analysis reveals crypto's k coefficient is 10-1,000x higher than Facebook's, meaning each user is priced vastly more valuable despite lower stickiness as liquidity remains mercenary, developers churn through forkable codebases, and retention fails to compound across cycles. Crypto might grow into powerful network effects if it becomes an internet settlement fabric, but it is currently far overvalued.
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<div style="text-align: center;"><strong><h1>Miscellaneous</h1></strong></div>
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<strong>Why Capital Is Leaving Bitcoin (15 minute read)</strong>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif;">
Bitcoin functioned as a regulatory battering ram that survived where E-gold failed by removing centralized attack vectors, but its three trillion dollar valuation collapses now that tokenized US stocks, gold, and stablecoins are legal with several hundred billion in market cap. The monopoly dissolved as stablecoins migrated from Bitcoin to Ethereum to Tron treating blockchains as disposable plumbing, while Nasdaq outperformed Bitcoin over four-year cycles as risk premium vanished and developer commits plunged to 2017 levels. People prefer Tether's ability to freeze stolen funds and recover misplaced tokens over Bitcoin's permanent irreversibility, revealing the market wants powerful rails with error correction rather than pure code-is-law decentralization.
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<strong>Mapping the First Wave of Agent Payments (20 minute read)</strong>
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x402 payment infrastructure analysis shows USDC accounts for 99% of volume, with Base handling 89% of transactions, while agent-like wallets generate 90% of transaction count. Coinbase leads facilitator transaction volume, but Questflow routes to the widest recipient set, positioning itself as the long-tail marketplace aggregator versus vertical SaaS-style competitors. USDC's ERC-3009/transferWithAuthorization standard enables the authorization-then-settle flow optimized for Coinbase and Base infrastructure, though this concentration creates platform risk as agents dominate micro-payment volumes while humans execute fewer, larger-ticket transactions.
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<strong>Stablecoins Are Now Major Gold Buyers (1 minute read)</strong>
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