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<div style="display: none; max-height: 0px; overflow: hidden;">Bitcoin steadied near $114K after August CPI data matched expectations, reinforcing odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut next week </div>
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<h1><strong>TLDR Crypto <span id="date">2025-09-12</span></strong></h1>
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<strong>Bitcoin Holds $114K as CPI Keeps September Rate Cut in Play (3 minute read)</strong>
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Bitcoin steadied near $114K after August CPI data matched expectations, reinforcing odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut next week. Headline CPI rose 2.9% YoY, while core held at 3.1%, aligning with forecasts and supporting a dovish policy pivot. Analysts say BTC remains bullish if it can close above $113K-$113.5K, with ETF inflows strengthening and markets now pricing in up to three rate cuts before Q1 2026.
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<strong>Multicoin Creating World's Largest Solana Treasury Company (8 minute read)</strong>
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Multicoin Capital, Jump Crypto, and Galaxy led a $1.65 billion investment into Forward Industries (FORD) to create the world's leading Solana treasury company. Kyle Samani was appointed as Chairman. Each sponsor committed over $100 million and attracted participation from major firms, including Bitwise, Ribbit Capital, and crypto angels. The strategy adapts MicroStrategy's Bitcoin DAT model to Solana, aiming to increase "SOL per share" through active treasury management, including DeFi participation, acquiring discounted SOL through sponsor networks, and arbitraging cost of capital differences between traditional banking and DeFi protocols. Samani argues SOL offers superior properties for a DAT compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum, citing native staking yields of approximately 8.05% (including 1.86% real yield from MEV and economic activity) versus Ethereum's 3.21% total yield with only 0.41% real yield, while Bitcoin generates zero real yield.
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<strong>Kraken Brings Perps Trading to Retail Ahead of IPO (3 minute read)</strong>
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Kraken has expanded access to perpetual futures (“perps”) for eligible retail traders in select regions, positioning the product as a simplified way for “everyday investors” to speculate on crypto prices or manage risk. First introduced by BitMEX in 2016, perps now account for the majority of derivatives activity, with Hyperliquid leading volumes. The launch comes as Kraken prepares for a potential 2026 IPO, rolling out perps with built-in protections like stop-loss functions and collateral in USD balances, alongside broader product expansion into tokenized stocks and an in-house Ethereum L2 called INK.
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<strong>Pulse: The Pendle PT Agent (6 minute read)</strong>
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Giza's Pulse is the first autonomous agent that optimizes Pendle Principal Token (PT) portfolios. The non-custodial agent automatically handles portfolio construction across PT markets, real-time rebalancing to higher yields, slippage forecasting, and maturity management, including rollovers and exits, eliminating the manual tracking and expiry anxiety associated with fixed yield strategies. Built in partnership with Pendle, Pulse represents an evolution toward "Swarm Finance" where protocols offer rewards to attract agent liquidity, agents capture boosted yields automatically, and fees flow to token buybacks, creating a competitive ecosystem for automated capital allocation. The platform plans to expand to additional chains and assets.
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<strong>Debunking the Seasonality Myth (12 minute read)</strong>
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Coinbase's institutional crypto research report maintains a bullish outlook for early Q4 2025, driven by resilient liquidity, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and supportive regulatory dynamics, with Bitcoin positioned for outperformance as Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected in September and October. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have evolved from early adoption into a competitive "player-versus-player" phase, with public DATs now holding over 1M BTC ($110B) and 4.9M ETH ($21.3B), though early mover premiums have dissipated as the market matures. The report conducts extensive statistical analysis debunking crypto seasonality myths, particularly the "September effect," using multiple methodologies, including Wilson confidence intervals, logistic regression, and out-of-sample predictions, to demonstrate that monthly calendar patterns are not statistically significant predictors of Bitcoin returns. Despite Bitcoin's historical weakness in six consecutive Septembers from 2017 to 2022, assuming each month has roughly the same odds as the long-term average outperforms all calendar-based trading approaches.
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<strong>USDH Proposals Explained (11 minute read)</strong>
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There are nine different proposals for Hyperliquid's USDH stablecoin partnership, each offering distinct approaches to backing, yield allocation, and ecosystem integration. The proposals showcase varying risk profiles, from conservative T-Bills and cash backing to more complex structures like Ethena's delta-neutral strategies and Sky's diversified RWA portfolio, with most committing significant portions of yield revenue to the Hyperliquid ecosystem. Regulatory approaches differ substantially, with established players leveraging existing GENIUS Act compliance while newer entrants like Native Markets plan to use Stripe's Bridge infrastructure for regulatory coverage. The USDH proposal battle is under controversy for seemingly favoring Native Markets from the beginning and being yet another instance of decentralization theatre.
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<strong>Why prediction markets could save the world (13 minute read)</strong>
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Prediction markets could solve the modern "Information Problem" - the shift from centralized, slow information flows to decentralized, instant but low-quality information that makes distinguishing truth from noise increasingly difficult. AI will exponentially worsen this crisis through indistinguishable deepfakes and personalized manipulation tools that could be weaponized by malicious actors to turn citizens against each other and enable authoritarian control. Prediction markets offer a solution by applying capitalism's price mechanism to information discovery, where real financial stakes incentivize accuracy and collective intelligence outperforms bias and manipulation, as demonstrated by Polymarket's superior accuracy in calling the 2024 US Presidential election before traditional media outlets. The vision extends beyond speculation to prediction markets becoming critical infrastructure for truth discovery, enabling better decision-making for individuals and corporations, rapid response to misinformation campaigns, and potentially revitalizing journalism through trading desks that profit from accuracy.
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<strong>Measuring growth in crypto (15 minute read)</strong>
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Crypto companies must adapt rather than copy web2 marketing playbooks, with different business models requiring distinct approaches: L1/L2s focus on Monthly Active Addresses and developer ecosystem growth, protocols track users/volume/TVL, while wallets and games use more traditional DAU and ARPU metrics. Core web2 metrics like Customer Acquisition Cost, Lifetime Value, and LTV:CAC ratios require crypto-specific adaptations to account for wallet-based customers, token incentives, and onchain value creation, while the marketing funnel stages present unique challenges, including restricted advertising access, complex attribution tracking between web2 and onchain actions, and distinguishing organic growth from airdrop farming. Crypto has unique advantages like onchain data transparency and instant verifiable rewards, but over-relying on incentivized metrics may mask a lack of product-market fit.
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<strong>Solana Treasuries Expand as Upexi and BIT Mining Boost Holdings (3 minute read)</strong>
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Upexi (UPXI) and BIT Mining (BTCM) both expanded their Solana treasuries, with Upexi adding 18,000 SOL for a total of 2M+ tokens ($456M) and BIT Mining nearly doubling to 44,000 SOL ($9.9M).
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<strong>Starknet Onchain Activity Increases 300% in One Month (1 minute read)</strong>
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Daily transactions on Starknet have spiked ~300% over the past month, according to Token Terminal data.
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<strong>Aave Protocol Revenue (1 minute read)</strong>
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Aave has seen impressive growth in revenue over the past three years, with 2025 about to flip 2024's $90 million marker.
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<strong>Financial Rails for an Agentic Web (7 minute read)</strong>
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The x402 protocol, deployed on Solana, allows agents to use the network for pay-per-use services and agent-to-agent interactions.
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